This lesson covers four theorists who reached, by different routes, a conclusion that most people find unwelcome: that democracy as ordinarily understood may be structurally impossible, and that behind every formal system of rule stands a small group that actually decides.

They are usually taught briefly or skipped. They should not be, for two reasons. Their argument is serious and partly correct. And the history of what was done with it is one of the more important cautionary tales in the discipline.

Michels and the iron law of oligarchy

The mechanisms Michels identifies, which are the substance of the argument:

Technical necessity. Large groups cannot deliberate. Delegation is unavoidable, and delegation creates delegates.

Specialised competence. Leaders acquire expertise — in procedure, finance, negotiation, the law — that members lack and cannot easily acquire part-time. The membership becomes dependent on the leadership for the knowledge required to evaluate the leadership.

Control of communication. The leadership runs the party press, sets the agenda, writes the minutes and decides what is reported.

Psychological factors. Michels argues that members are often grateful for leadership, disinclined to the labour of self-government, and prone to a "cult of veneration" for leaders — and that leaders develop a corresponding taste for position.

And goal displacement (4.2.7, 4.3.4). The organisation's original purpose is progressively subordinated to its survival. A party that exists to overthrow an order acquires buildings, staff, pensions and legal standing — and becomes unwilling to risk them. This is Michels's sharpest point and it explains the German SPD's trajectory precisely: a revolutionary party that voted for war credits in 1914.

Pareto: elite circulation

Vilfredo Pareto (1848–1923), Italian engineer, economist and sociologist, best known outside sociology for the Pareto distribution and the "80/20" observation about the concentration of wealth.

And his two governing types, borrowed from Machiavelli:

Lions — rulers who use force, are conservative, defend order, and are strong on loyalty and persistence. Foxes — rulers who use cunning, negotiation, manipulation and innovation.

Pareto argues that regimes oscillate between them: fox-dominated regimes become adept at manipulation and lose the will to use force, and are overthrown by lions; lion regimes become rigid and are outmanoeuvred by foxes.

Mosca: the political class

Gaetano Mosca (1858–1941), Italian jurist and political scientist, whose Elementi di Scienza Politica (1896; expanded 1923, translated as The Ruling Class) states the elite argument in its most careful form.

Mosca is also the most democratic of the three, and this is worth noting because he is usually lumped with the others. His later work argued that representative institutions, a free press, judicial independence and competing sub-elites genuinely constrain the ruling class — and that the difference between a regime with those and one without is enormous, even if neither is government by the people in the literal sense.

That is close to the modern position: elite rule is universal; the type of elite rule varies enormously; and the variation is what matters.

Tönnies: Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft

The fourth figure belongs here for a different reason: Ferdinand Tönnies (1855–1936) supplied the vocabulary in which much of the argument about modernity, including this one, has been conducted.

The relations to the others are close and worth stating. Tönnies's pair maps onto Durkheim's mechanical and organic solidarity (4.2.2) — with the crucial difference that Durkheim thought the modern form generated a new and adequate bond, while Tönnies thought it dissolved bonds altogether. It maps onto Weber's traditional and rational action (4.3.2), onto Simmel's village and metropolis (4.4.5), and it supplied the vocabulary for the Chicago School's rural-urban continuum and for Wirth's urbanism thesis.

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What survives the argument

The organisational mechanisms are real and are now standard. Delegation creating delegates, information asymmetry between leadership and membership, goal displacement, the advantage of the organised minority — none of this is contested. It appears in organisational sociology, in political science's work on principal-agent problems, in the study of interest groups, and in every analysis of why small focused lobbies defeat large diffuse publics (4.1.8).

Mosca's political formula is one of the most useful concepts in political sociology and is essentially Gramsci's hegemony (5.6) arrived at from the right.

The conditions that resist oligarchy are specifiable, as Lipset, Trow and Coleman showed: distributed competence, independent communication networks, legitimate factions, and small enough units for participation to be feasible. That converts a fatalistic law into a design problem, which is a substantial improvement.

And the elite background research is robust. Whatever one concludes about policy responsiveness, the demographic narrowness of senior positions is documented across many countries and many decades.

What does not survive

The fatalism. "Democracy is impossible" does not follow from "organisations develop oligarchic tendencies." The variation between regimes — in whether elites are contested, replaceable, accountable, legally constrained and internally divided — is enormous and consequential, and a theory that treats a competitive constitutional order and a personalist dictatorship as equivalent instances of elite rule has lost the information that matters most.

Pareto's psychology. The theory of residues and derivations — a taxonomy of underlying sentiments and the rationalisations built on them — is elaborate, untestable and has had almost no empirical afterlife.

The circulation mechanism as stated. Elites do renew and decay, and Pareto's account of how is impressionistic rather than specified.

And the political use. The elite theorists' argument was used, in the 1920s and 30s, to justify authoritarian rule on the ground that democracy was a fiction anyway. The inference is invalid — from "no system achieves literal self-government" it does not follow that arrangements which constrain rulers are worthless — but it was made, and by two of these authors personally.

Why it matters

It supplies the strongest available challenge to democratic self-description, and a challenge is more useful than agreement. Anyone who wants to claim that a large society governs itself has to answer Michels's mechanisms, and the answer has to be specific rather than indignant.

It converts a fatalistic claim into a design question. Once the resisting conditions are identified — distributed competence, independent communication, legitimate opposition, feasible scale — the question becomes how to build them, which is a practical question with practical answers.

It gives you the political formula, which is one of the most portable concepts in this Part. Every regime, organisation and institution has a story about why those in charge should be. Identifying it, and asking what would happen if it stopped being believed, is a genuinely powerful analytical move.

And it is a case study in a theory's political afterlife. A defensible empirical claim about organisations was used to justify abolishing the constraints on rulers. The inference was invalid and the theory did not stop it — which is a warning about what social science can be used for, and about the responsibility that attaches to stating a finding without stating its limits.